iCash News

The Motion In the Ocean

The seas have been very rough in 2018. The great ship Crypto remains afloat, but has been pushed back by battering seas and adverse winds. It appears that the laws of price gravity still apply, and can be cruel in their speed and efficacy.

All is not lost and the ship remains above water and seaworthy. Volatility remains the headline, now it is of the more painful type. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, & Monero have seen slides well above 40% off their late 2017 high water marks. We see this as part of a healthy- if difficult- long-term process. Crypto did not invent volatility, nor is this the only site of heavy price turbulence. 

A look at US Dollar, oil, gold and many other assets suggests that wild price volatility is a long, winding, and rich tale. It is a story of many characters and sadly, less rare than many of us would like to believe. Oil prices have been dramatically volatile and deeply impactful since the early 1970s. Gold prices have swung far and often, going from $220 per ounce in 1970 to over $2100 in 1980. Even the mighty US Dollar — pillar of global stability — has been volatile across its recent history.

The Crypto experience — 2017–2018- has been very volatile. Wild swings up and down have been common and unusually dramatic. Day after day sees 3%, 10%, 20% moves in major altcoins. It is dizzying. This is actually not unheard of in emerging assets. We see the wild swings resulting from today’s borderless Internet and 24 hour activity cycles. No asset has or does trade as broadly or democratically as does Crypto. Thus, we have global synchronized feeding and regurgitating frenzies in this corner of the asset markets. It is never dull.
The present, with all its limitations and issues is giving birth to several possible financial futures. This is happening all at once and before the eyes of the world. Yes, it is raw, messy and not always clear where we are going. No, the price should not be your focus. The journey is a blur of constant change. The destination promises greater efficiency, inclusion and decentralization. No doubt, where we are headed is worth the trip.
Post Script: This little blog was penned on a day where the Dow moved more than 3.5% and the VIX – Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – was up 96%. That date from the fog enveloped, deep past? 05 February 2018. Maybe the world is just speeding up and becoming less stable?

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